Who is to blame?

Germany

The Allied and Associated Governments affirm and Germany accepts the responsibility of Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and damage to which the Allied and Associated Governments and their nationals have been subjected as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by the aggression of Germany and her allies. [Article 231, Treaty of Versailles]

Nobody

How was it that the world was so unexpectedly plunged into this terrible conflict? Who was responsible? . . . The nations slithered over the brink into the boiling cauldron of war without a trace of apprehension or dismay. [David Lloyd George. British Prime Minister, 1916-1921]

Russia and France

The chief objects of Russian and French foreign policy, seizure of the Straits and the return of Alsace-Lorraine, could be realized only through a general European war…. In estimating the order of guilt of the various countries we may safely say that the only direct and immediate responsibility for the World War falls upon Serbia, France and Russia, with the guilt about equally divided. [Harry Elmer Barnes. American historian]

Everybody

The outbreak of war in 1914 is not an Agatha Christie drama at the end of which we will discover the culprit standing over a corpse in the conservatory with a smoking pistol. There is no smoking gun in this story; or, rather, there is one in the hands of every major character. Viewed in this light, the outbreak of war was a tragedy, not a crime. [Christopher Clark. Australian historian]

Austria-Hungary

… Austria-Hungary made the conscious decision to launch a Balkan war in order to reduce Serbia to the status of at best a semi-protectorate, and to appeal to its ally in Berlin for support in case the Austro-Serbian conflict escalated into a general European war. Unfortunately, Austria-Hungary’s culpability for the start of the First World War has been overshadowed for far too long … [Holger H. Herwig. Canadian historian]

Inflexible Military Plans

When cut down to essentials, the sole cause for the outbreak of war in 1914 was the Schlieffen plan …. Yet the Germans had no deliberate aim of subverting the liberties of Europe. No one had time for a deliberate aim or time to think. All were trapped by the ingenuity of their military preparations, the Germans most of all. [A J P Taylor. British historian]

Germany

As Germany willed and coveted the Austro-Serbian war and, in her confidence in her military superiority, deliberately faced the risk of a conflict with Russia and France, her leaders must bear a substantial share of the historical responsibility for the outbreak of general war in 1914. [Fritz Fischer. German historian]

France and Russia

… the Triple Entente fought to dismember the Austro-Hungarian monarchy and reconquer Alsace-Lorraine, while the Central Powers fought to defend their existing territory. France and Russia played their traditional role as the expansionist Powers of Europe … [Edward E McCullogh. Canadian historian]

Germany and Austria-Hungary

War had been no accident … it was the consequence of decisions taken in Berlin and Vienna, and the result of attitudes which regarded war not as the ultimate catastrophe, but a necessary, or even desirable evil and as a way of continuing foreign policy by other means. [Annika Mombauer. British historian]

The July Crisis 1914

The events of July 1914 did more to shape the modern world than any others. Several dozen men from a handful of countries, brought about World War One.

The results of this war include: the collapse of the Russian Empire and the formation of the Soviet Union; the rise to world power of the United States; the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire, the abolition of the Caliphate, and the foundation of the modern Middle East, whose problems we read about daily; and the formation of five new European nation states one of which collapsed in bloody civil war as recently as 1991.

All this, and the deaths of nine million soldiers and at least six million civilians.

It also produced the Versailles Treaty which laid the entire blame for the war on Germany and created conditions there which led to the rise of the Nazis and eventually World War Two, and 60 million more dead.

Which country or countries is to blame, or most to blame, is still debated today, a 100 years later. This site uses the web to present those events and the men involved in a new way, which may not conclude the debate, but will make clearer what happened.

The July Crisis 1914 Timeline

The central feature of this website is the Timeline. We believe it is the most detailed available.

The Main Timeline covers 485 critical events (decisions, statements, messages, meetings, and actions) involving 50 or so politicians, military leaders, and diplomats, in Austria-Hungary, Germany, Serbia, Russia, Britain, France and Belgium from the 29th June to the 4th August 1914.

Underlying Causes versus Immediate Causes

The Timeline concentrates on the immediate causes of the war.

Most books about the origins of World War One examine the underlying or long term causes; the rival alliances*, the armaments race, domestic issues, cultural trends, and overseas and economic competition, even if they have a chapter on the July Crisis.

* The Triple Entente (The Franco-Russian Alliance and Britain) and the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy)

This is not to say that underlying causes are more important than immediate causes. One type of cause works with the other. If there are no immediate causes the underlying or long term causes don’t cause anything, they remain potential causes of trouble that may change or eventually fade away as has happened many times in history!

Equally, a political misjudgement, a foolhardy decision, might not have such disastrous consequences without there being a larger issue.

We think the immediate causes bring out more clearly the human factors; ignorance, incompetence, miscalculation, and even bad organisation. And, these were greatly present in July 1914.

And, paradoxically, the Timeline with its concentration on immediate causes is a useful tool for a better understanding of long term causes. It draws attention to the occasions when the underlying causes were at their greatest relevance.

Why were the Austro-Hungarians so overwhelmingly and so quickly in favour of attacking and dismembering Serbia? What were the German leaders hoping for when they gave their unqualified support to Austria-Hungary on the 5 July? Why on the 24/25 July was Russia so quick to take military steps? Why did the French support them? Did the British really have to delay until the 2 August when Belgium was threatened to make up their mind?

Many of the [More] links go into these issues.